There were 17 candidates in the Republican field for the 2016 Presidential election. I think that the 2020 primary race on the Democratic side could get just as crazy. I saw the discussion from 538 about front runners and I thought it missed a major point.
The chain is broken. The loss of Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump (I voted for Clinton in both the primary and election) upended traditional rules.
The chain had already been broken by Barack Obama...an inexperienced black man who basically skipped the line of succession and won the election. Technically Biden should have been next in line but for his own personal reasons stepped aside for Hillary Clinton. Had he run (and I think he would have lost as well), he could have brought Hillary Clinton as VP on the ticket. I’m not sure she would have accepted but it would have followed the standard “establishment” coronation route. Obama/Biden/Clinton/(whoever Clinton chose as VP….I don’t think it would have been Tim Kaine in that scenario)…
But then Clinton lost...and Sanders had a good showing...a great showing.
I think Sanders was preaching a message that our party needs to hear. I think that message has resonated and you can hear the evolution of it being branded about in talking points by potential up and comers. Have you listened to the latest political podcasts: Blabbermouth, Pod Save America, Bill Maher, 538...etc? All these politicians are adopting “progressive” talking points. Single payer- check. Income Inequality- check. Each has their own flavor of how they address the issue but it’s interesting to hear the party shift...and shift it has.
Don’t think for a minute that every single politician with their eye on the ultimate goal for Presidency doesn’t understand this vacuum. They understand that the succession line has been broken and right now...every man/woman for him/herself.
I think the 2020 field will be diverse (in both race and gender). It will have majors/governors/senators/outsiders. It will be a tough field. You will see a blend of both Clinton/Sanders style. Voters will not accept wonky, long plans but they also won’t accept stump speeches without details. The winning candidate will figure out a way to explain single health payer and how it gets paid for in a short detailed plan that a layperson can understand and get behind. It will need to appeal to the young, middle, old, progressive, pragmatic. It will be dirty. There will be no more nice guys/gals. Everybody’s cards will be on the table.
It will be an interesting primary. It will be a crazy time on Dkos but I think ultimately the orange Cheetos has given the Democrats a blessing in disguise. You want change...Change is coming...